Saudi Arabia launched a series of air strikes in Yemen on Thursday
and announced that it is leading a coalition of ten states against the Houthis.
The Houthis are a Shia group that overthrew the government of Abd Rabbuh Mansur
Hadi in January of this year. They are currently in control of the capital
Sana’a and much of Northern Yemen. The Houthis are aiming to expand their
control over all of Yemen and are supported by Iran. Iran is a strong supporter
of the Houthis and has lashed out against Saudi Arabia and its coalition
partners for its attacks in Yemen. However, Saudi Arabia views the Houthis as
an existential threat to Sunni states in the region. In response to this
perceived threat, Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners have launched
operation “Decisive Storm” to defeat the Houthis.
Saudi Arabia has asked Pakistan for support in this campaign.
Although Pakistan has a deep strategic relationship with Saudi Arabia, it must
not get involved in Yemen because it does not advance its interests in the
region, will serve to antagonize both the domestic and international Shia
community, and the legality of military action is questionable at best.
Pakistan’s strategic interests will be hurt if it gets involved in
this military campaign. Although Pakistan has a deep economic and military
relationship with Saudi Arabia, it has a budding relationship with Iran that
needs to continue to improve. Pakistan has been developing a stronger economic
and security relationship with Iran over the past several years. Bilateral
trade continues to improve, with nearly $900 million worth of trade conducted
last year. Furthermore, increased security cooperation is helping to secure the
porous border between Iran and Baluchistan. Finally, the cost of non-involvement
for Pakistan’s relationship with Saudi Arabia remains lows, especially because
of the strong ties between Nawaz Sharif and the Saudi royal family.
Non-involvement will not substantively hurt Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s
relationship, while involvement on behalf of Riyadh in Yemen will significantly
hurt Islamabad’s relationship with Tehran. The costs for involvement far
outweigh any strategic gains.
Any involvement by Pakistan in this conflict will antagonize both
the domestic and international Shia communities. It is estimated that 20% of
Pakistan’s population is Shia, giving it the second largest Shia population in
the world with up to 40 million adherents across the country. The large Shia
population in Pakistan has experienced prejudice and attacks in the past, with
the most recent attack being a suicide bombing at a mosque in Peshawar last
month that killed 19 people. As this conflict is being framed by Saudi Arabia
as a Sunni versus Shia showdown, Pakistan’s involvement on behalf of Saudi Arabia
will be perceived by the Shia community as further proof of the Pakistani
state’s bias against them. Pakistan cannot afford to further alienate this
important community, especially at a time of heightened religious polarization
across the country and world.
Pakistan must not get involved in Yemen because the current
coalition against the Houthis is operating outside of the confines of
international law. According to Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, a
state cannot get involved in the affairs of another state unless it is being
attacked. Saudi Arabia is not being attacked by the Houthis and thus its
military strike can be viewed as an abrogation of the principle of
non-intervention into sovereign states. Although supporters of intervention will
argue that Saudi Arabia’s actions are justified in order to support the deposed
government of Yemen, without an explicit United Nations Security Council
resolution authorizing the use of force, the current attack is not legally
sanctioned. An illegal intervention into another state is not a position
Pakistan should support, especially given the vocal critique by politicians
like Imran Khan that U.S. drone strikes are a violation of Pakistan’s
sovereignty. Given the extreme antipathy by many Pakistanis towards the
violation of its sovereignty, Pakistan should avoid doing that which it
generally condemns.
Although
Riyadh would like the support of Islamabad in its current campaign against the
Houthis in Yemen, Pakistan must avoid getting involved in this conflict.
Involvement in the conflict will not advance Pakistan’s strategic interests and
will instead hurt ties with Iran and the Shia community. The costs for
noninvolvement are extremely low and even though numerous states are
participating in this conflict, they appear to be doing so outside of the
confines of international law. Pakistan should adopt a realist position on this
conflict and remain steadfast in avoiding Saudi Arabia’s coalition against the
Houthis in Yemen.
